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Trump Can Not Win a Currency War, US World’s Largest Manipulator

Can Not Win a Currency War, US World’s Largest Manipulator

The position of the US Dollar makes a Currency War unwinnable, the US is the world’s leading currency manipulator having had artificially low rates for decade, printing money at the greatest rate in history and is still the currency of choice for international transactions.

Moves like trade wars, add upward pressure on the US Dollar, a global economic downturn would also rally the dollar.

Efficient Government and efficient business is the path to growth, trade barriers are transient solutions with dire long time results.

President Donald on Friday doubled down on his attack on the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates — a shock criticism of the central bank that US presidents traditionally avoid and one economists say is dangerous, however it is time for a rate rise, even though Trump is probably correct, the timing of the rate hike is political.

He also lambasted and the European Union for keeping interest rates low and manipulating their currencies to gain a trade advantage, something America has done for a very long time.

Central banks in all advanced economies and many emerging market countries are kept insulated from political influence and allowed to determine monetary policy independently, but the reality is they are political in nature with few exceptions.

Governments that have violated that independence for short-term economic gain have done so at their peril, including one US president who did so infamously: Richard Nixon.

Trump said the Fed was undermining economic progress by raising the benchmark lending rate and that is correct.

In a pair of tweets, Trump said “, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the US is raising rates while the dollars gets stronger and stronger with each passing day.” This is where Trump needs a real economist to offer advice, the dollar rallied because of Trump’s own actions.

That is “taking away our big competitive edge,” he said, that part is correct. “As usual, not a level playing field.” he added also correct, the US has been cheating and so has everyone else.

After criticizing the Fed in an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Trump was even more harsh on Twitter, saying “Tightening now hurts all that we have done.”

And he noted the impact of higher rates on debt payments: “Debt coming due & we are raising rates – Really?”

“The United States should not be penalized because we are doing so well,” he tweeted.

– ‘Banana republic’ –

The comments drew alarmed reaction from notable economists and former government officials.

“Attacking central bank is one more step in what seems like a presidential strategy of turning the United States into a banana republic,” Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned on Twitter.

In an interview with CNBC, Summers said pressuring a central bank could “produce results and looks good for a while but ultimately it leads you into real trouble.”

Rising borrowing costs can slow economic growth and generally boost the value of the currency since it attracts more funds into the country in search of higher yields from investments.

Since the United States has recovered faster than other major economies, the Fed is raising rates faster than other central banks as well, making the US a more attractive investment destination. That has caused trillions of dollars to flow out of emerging market economies.

Trump is benefitting from an economy nearing a decade of continued growth, with continued solid job gains and the lowest unemployment rate since 2000, prior to the global financial crisis.

The Fed has raised the benchmark lending rates twice this year, after three increases in 2017, and two more rate hikes are expected this year as the central bank removes stimulus from the economy to keep a lid on inflation.

The chance inflation might accelerate has increased after the massive tax cut last year that Trump championed, which has raised the US debt and budget deficit.

Trump said he was unconcerned that his remarks might spark criticism as he was merely stating long-held personal views.

“I couldn’t care less,” he told CNBC.

But simply “jawboning” the Fed with such comments, even without overt pressure, in itself undermines confidence of financial markets that policymakers will be able to stay the course and keep prices in check.

The dollar is up from early this year against a basket of currencies but is below the peak hit in December 2016 just after Trump was elected. And his comments sent the dollar down sharply.

The Fed chairman, Trump-appointee Jerome Powell, has repeatedly stressed the commitment to an independent central bank.

Powell said in an interview last week that “nothing has been said to me publicly or privately that gives me any concern about our independence.”

But he cautioned in a speech in May that “trust in government and public institutions is at historic lows” so “central banks cannot take our measure of independence for granted.”

In the early 1970s, President Richard Nixon pressured Fed chief Arthur Burns to keep interest rates low ahead of the 1972 presidential election, when Nixon won a second term. He said he preferred inflation to unemployment.

But as Oxford Economics recalled, “Loose monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve along with the oil price shocks in the 1970s would eventually push inflation to nine percent in late 1973 and 12 percent in late 1974.”

Summers and others warned that even perceived political pressure could force the Fed to raise rates more aggressively just to prove its independence.

“It’s a fool’s game,” Summers said.