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Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Target 110

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Target 110

The Japanese Yen has been firmer of late, as the currency has begun to look oversold and its fundamentals have picked up amid some overt speculation that BOJ policy could be set to tighten.

  • Japan manufacturing data:
    • In July, Japan’s manufacturing sector recorded its lowest level of growth in 20 months which resulted in a dip in business confidence levels. The Japanese flash manufacturing PMI stood at  which was a drop from the prior month’s value of 53. Moreover, this brings the statistic closer to the 50 mark which puts it borderline between expansion and contraction.
  • Bank of Japan:
    • The Bank of Japan announced that it is considering making changes to its monetary policy. The main target of its changes shall be interest rates. This amplified the levels of speculation that the Bank may make a reduction to its stimulus program.
  • Federal Reserve:
    • Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell issued a clear and concise message about the US economy. He stated that he is pleased with the GDP growth levels and the accelerated wage growth. However, he believes the high tariffs shall negatively impact the US economy in the long run.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.58.

The projected upper bound is: 111.97.

The projected lower bound is: 109.63.

The projected closing price is: 110.80.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 1 white candles and 9 black candles for a net of 8 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 13.3528. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.41. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -91. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.170 at 110.800. Volume was 78% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 20% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.960 111.030 110.700 110.800 22,847

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.85 110.55 110.09
Volatility: 6 7 8
Volume: 98,905 104,091 106,317

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods.