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GOLD 1 OZ (XAU=X) remain fully bearish on a near-term basis

GOLD 1 OZ (XAU=X) remain fully bearish on a near-term basis

Gold and silver prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading Tuesday. Both metals are not far above last week’s 12-month lows, and their technical postures remain fully bearish on a near-term basis. August gold futures were last down $1.60 an ounce at $1,229.60. September Comex silver was down $0.049 at $15.50 an ounce.

Global gold prices have tumbled 10 per cent since mid-April, driven lower by a surge in the US currency.

Meanwhile, banks and brokerages have cut their average gold price forecasts for this year. A poll of 35 analysts and traders conducted this month forecast an average gold price of $1,301 an ounce in 2018 and $1,325 in 2019, from predictions of $1,334 and $1,352 respectively in a similar poll three months ago.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,270.04.

The projected upper bound is: 1,242.54.

The projected lower bound is: 1,203.20.

The projected closing price is: 1,222.87.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 42.8993. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 31.09. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -88. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed down -6.740 at 1,224.630. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 5% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1,230.8901,235.1001,221.6901,224.630 20,863

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,235.68 1,271.82 1,299.90
Volatility: 10 10 11
Volume: 2,086 417 104

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAU= is currently 5.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods.