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Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) volatile but mostly directionless

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) volatile but mostly directionless

The Euro finished in the middle of the pack last week, gaining ground against four currencies while losing ground against three. EUR/CHF was the worst performer, dropping by -0.61%, while EUR/GBP was the best, adding +0.98%; EUR/USD was volatile but mostly directionless, adding a mere +0.33%. While the economic calendar last week was the main culprit for the lack of significant movement – there were no high rated events on the docket – the coming week features a multitude of event risk.

Outlook is EUR/USD is unchanged. Further rise cannot be ruled out as consolidation from 1.1509 extends. But upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside , firm break of 1.1507 will resume larger down trend through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.19.

The projected lower bound is: 1.15.

The projected closing price is: 1.17.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 64.3680. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 38 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 45. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.003 at 1.169. Volume was 8% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 40% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.173 1.175 1.168 1.169 129,663

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.17 1.17 1.20
Volatility: 6 9 9
Volume: 148,232 155,653 129,649

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.