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British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Inflation and growth forecasts raised

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Inflation and growth forecasts raised

The Bank of England has surprised foreign exchange markets by voting 9-0 to raise interest rates to 0.75% on Thursday, August 02.

This would be only the second increase since the 2008 financial crisis, despite that consumer price inflation has fallen much faster this year than it or almost any economist had forecast.

Prices are now hard-charging for the 1.3000 psychological level, and this begs the question as to whether or not this morning’s outlay might be enough to push the pair through this vaulted level.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.32.

The projected lower bound is: 1.28.

The projected closing price is: 1.30.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 11.8942. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -149.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed down -0.000 at 1.302. Volume was 93% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 30% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.302 1.302 1.301 1.302 12,081

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.31 1.32 1.36
Volatility: 7 8 9
Volume: 152,113 168,853 155,400

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX GBP= is currently 4.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.