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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Bears Have Finally Run Out of Steam

: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Bears Have Finally Run Out of Steam

There is a certain amount of supply in this area, so if we are going to turn around, it’s probably going to be between here and $8000 above. I think there is more than enough reason to believe that we could pull back, because we had seen such a massive amount of positivity over the last couple of days. In fact, Tuesday was a 10% gain, which of course is a bit overdone.

The trend is bullish, but I suspect that traders that are not long would like to see a price correction before buying. Drawing Fibonacci retracement levels from the July 12 low of $6091 up to yesterday’s high of $7592, we can get the $6668 to $7025 range (38.2% to 61.8% Fibonacci levels). I suspect that traders might be interested in buying in this Fibonacci range aiming for the June 3 high of $7788, as the risk/reward ratio is better here. However, if the price slips below the July 12 low of $6091, the bullish trend would be over, and this outlook would be negated.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 8,125.47.

The projected lower bound is: 6,745.17.

The projected closing price is: 7,435.32.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.1671. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 68.11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 20 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 136.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 24.840 at 7,437.340. Volume was 59% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
7,415.7107,557.5007,301.2307,437.340 30,838

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,748.23 6,724.72 8,823.17
Volatility: 61 65 117
Volume: 77,182 84,518 65,276

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 15.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.